2026
Baumgarten, F., Aitken, S., Vitasse, Y. Guy, R. D. & E. M. Wolkovich.2026. (In)determinacy in woody plants: limits and opportunities for timing growth in a changing climate. Ecology Letters. 29 (6) e70435 (pdf // data)
Van der Meersch, V., Regetz, J., Davies, T.J. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2026. Closing the gap between statistical and scientific workflows for improved forecasts in ecology. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 384 (2321): 20240612 (pdf // supp)
E. M. Wolkovich, Davies, T.J., Pearse, W. & M. Betancourt. 2026. A four-step simulated-based workflow for improving ecological science. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 384 (2321): 20250252 (pdf // data // supp)
2025
Davies, T.J., Hille Ris Lambers, J. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2025. The Janzen-Connell hypothesis and seed masting. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 40 (12): 1190-1198 (pdf)
Wolkovich, E. M., Ettinger, A.K., Chin, A., Chamberlain*, C. J., Baumgarten, F., Pradhan, K., Manzanedo, R.D. & J. Hille Ris Lambers. 2025. Why longer seasons with climate change may not increase tree growth. Nature Climate Change. 15: 1283–1292 (pdf // supp)
Loughnan, D. L., Jones, F. A., Legault, G., Buonaiuto, D. M., Chamberlain*, C.J., Ettinger*, A.K., Garner, M., Morales-Castilla, I., W. Sodhi & E. M. Wolkovich. 2025. Budburst timing within a functional trait framework. Journal of Ecology: 113 (12), 3787-3798. (pdf // data1 // data2 // data3)
Van der Meersch, V. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2025. Reply to Michał Bogdziewicz et al.: Research on the summer solstice needs falsifiable predictions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (122): 10.1073/pnas. 2516303122. (pdf)
Walde, M.G., Vitasse, Y. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2025. Rethinking the interpretation of spring phenological temperature sensitivity. npj Science of Plants (1): 10.1038/s44383-025-00004-6. (pdf // supp)
Wolkovich, E.M., Rouleau-Desrochers, C., García de Cortázar‐Atauri, I., Walker, M.A. & T. Lacombe. 2025. Building a more predictive model of terroir for the Anthropocene. Plants, People, Planet: 10.1002/ppp3.70055. (pdf // data // interactive figure of R x S studies)
Van der Meersch, V. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2025. Summer solstice optimizes the thermal growing season. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (122): 10.1073/pnas.2506796122. (pdf//data)
Wolkovich, E.M., Cook, B.I., García de Cortázar-Atauri, I., Van der Meersch, V., Lacombe, T., Marchal, C. & I. Morales-Castilla. 2025. Uneven impacts of climate change around the world and across the annual cycle of winegrapes. PLOS Climate (4): 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000539. (pdf // supp // data)
Wolkovich, E.M. 2025. The problem of terroir in the Anthropocene. Harvard Data Science Review (7): 10.1162/99608f92.d605e50f. (pdf)
Pearse, W.D., Davies, T.J. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2025. How to Define, Use, and Interpret Pagel’s λ (Lambda) in Ecology and Evolution. Global Ecology and Biogeography (34): 10.1111/geb.70012. (pdf // suppl)
Auerbach, J., Crimmins, T.M., Kepplinger, D., Lin, R. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2025. A Nonparametric Bayesian Model to Adjust for Monitoring Bias with an Application to Identifying Environments Stressed by Climate Change. arXiv.org: 10.48550/arXiv.2503.04924. (pdf)
Wolkovich, E.M. 2025. PhD students are let down by sector’s silence on ChatGPT misuse. Times Higher Education. (Invited, not peer-reviewed). (media)
2024
Cleland, E.E. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2024. Effects of phenology on plant community assembly and structure. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics (55): 471-492. (pdf)
Loughnan, D., Joly, S., Legault, G., Kharouba, H.M., Betancourt, M. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2024. Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change. Nature Ecology & Evolution (8): 1889-1896. (pdf // suppl1 // suppl2 // suppl3 // data)
Morales-Castilla, I., Davies, T.J., Legault, G., Buonaiuto, D.M., Chamberlain, C.J., Ettinger, A.K., Garner, M., Jones, F.A.M., Loughnan, D., Pearse, W.D., Sodhi, D.S. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2024. Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting. Nature Climate Change (14): 989-995. (pdf // suppl1 // suppl2 // data // updated notation)
Wolkovich, E.M., Davies, T.J., Pearse, W.D. & M. Betancourt. 2024. A four-step Bayesian workflow for improving ecological science. arXiv.org: 10.48550/arXiv.2408.02603. (pdf)
Zeng, Z. A. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2024. Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America. New Phytologist (242): 1957-1964. (pdf // supp // data)
Jones, F. A. M., Bogdanoff, C. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2024. The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: a case study in winegrapes. American Journal of Botany (111): 1. (pdf // supp // data)
Buonaiuto, D. M., Davies, T. J., Collins, S. C. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2024. Ecological drivers for flower-leaf sequences: aridity and proxies for pollinator attraction select for flowering-first in the American plums. New Phytologist (242): 2312-2321. (pdf // supp // data)
2023
Kharouba, H. M. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2023. Lack of evidence for the match-mismatch hypothesis across terrestrial trophic interactions. Accepted. Ecology Letters (26): 955-964. (pdf // supp // data)
Rivest, S. A., Wolkovich, E. M. & H. M. Kharouba. 2023. Flowering phenology influences butterfly nectar foraging on non-native plants in an oak savanna. Ecology (104): e4004. (pdf//data)
Chamberlan, C. J. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2023. Variation across space, species and methods in models of spring phenology. Climate Change Ecology (5): 100071. (pdf)
Buonaiuto, D. M. , Donahue, M. J. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2023. Experimental designs for testing the interactive effects of temperature and light in ecology and the problem of periodicity. Functional Ecology (37): 1747-1756 (pdf)
Buonaiuto, D. M. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2023. Contrasting responses to climate variability generate seasonal priority effects between native and invasive forest herbs. Journal of Ecology (111): 1711-1721. (pdf//data)
Jones, F. A. M., Bogdanoff, C. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2023. The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes. American Journal of Botany (111): 1-12. (pdf)
2022
Ettinger*, A.K., Chamberlain*, C.J., & E. M. Wolkovich. 2022. The increasing relevance of phenology to conservation. Nature Climate Change (12): 305-309. (Invited, not peer-reviewed) (pdf)
Wolkovich, E. M., Chamberlain, C.J., Buonaiuto, D. M., Ettinger, A.K. & I. Morales-Castilla. 2022. Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming. New Phytologist (235): 1719-1728. (pdf//data)
2021
Wolkovich, E. M., Auerbach, J. A., Chamberlain, C.J., Buonaiuto, D. M., Ettinger, A.K., Morales- Castilla, I. & A. Gelman. 2021. A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming. Global Change Biology (27): 10.1111/gcb.15746. (pdf // supp // data // blog // theme song: Birdhouse in Your Soul by They Might Be Giants)
Wolkovich, E. M. & M. Donahue. 2021. How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments. Biological Reviews (96): 10.1111/brv.12781. (pdf // supp)
Eyster, H. & E.M. Wolkovich. Comparisons in the native and introduced ranges reveal little evidence of climatic adaptation in germination traits. Accepted at Climate Change Ecology (2): 10.1016/j.ecochg.2021.100023 (pdf // supp // data)
Reimer, J. R., Arroyo-Esquivel, J. Jiang, J., Scharf, E. M. Wolkovich, Zhu, K. & C. Boettiger. 2021. Noise can create or erase long transient dynamics. Theoretical Ecology (14): doi.org/10.1007/s12080-021-00518-6. (pdf // supp // data)
Buonaiuto, D. M. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2021. Differences between flower and leaf phenological responses to environmental variation drive shifts in spring phenological sequences of temperate woody plants. Journal of Ecology (109): 2922–2933. (pdf // supp // data)
Chamberlain, C.J & E. M. Wolkovich. 2021. Late spring freezes coupled with warming winters alter temperate tree phenology and growth. New Phytologist (231): 987–995. (pdf // supp // data // theme song: Ice Wine by Lia Ices)
Morales-Castilla, I. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2021. Diversity may save wines from climate change. The Science Breaker: https://doi.org/10.25250/thescbr.brk501. (non-peer-reviewed) (article)
Ettinger, A.K., Buonaiuto, D. M., Chamberlain, C.J., Morales-Castilla & E. M. Wolkovich. Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change. New Phytologist (230): 462-474. (pdf // supp // data)
2020
Ettinger, A.K., Chamberlain, C.J., Buonaiuto, D. M., Morales-Castilla, I., Flynn, D.F.B., Savas, T., Samaha, J. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2020. Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming. Nature Climate Change (10): 1137-1142. (pdf // supp // data // theme song: Out Of The Woods by Taylor Swift)
Chamberlain, C.J., Cook, B.I., Morales-Castilla, I. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2020. Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees. New Phytologist (229): 323-334. (pdf // supp // theme song: Winter Winds by Mumford & Sons)
Merrill, N.K., García de Cortazar-Atuari, I., Parker, A.K., Walker, M. A. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2020. Exploring grapevine phenology and high temperatures response under controlled conditions. Frontiers in Environmental Science. (pdf // lab-data // field-data)
Kharouba, H.M. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2020. Disconnects between ecological theory and data in phenological mismatch research. Nature Climate Change (10): 406–415. (pdf // supp //data)
2019
Ettinger, A. K., Chuine, I., Cook, B. I., Dukes, J. S., Ellison, A. M., Johnston, M. R., Panetta, A. M. Rollinson, C. R., Vitasse, Y. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2019. How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate? Ecology Letters (22): 748–763. (pdf)
Chamberlain, C. J., Cook, B. I., Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, I. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2019. Rethinking False Spring Risk. Global Change Biology (25): doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14642 (pdf // theme song: Shots by Imagine Dragons)
Wolkovich, E.M. & I. Morales-Castilla*. 2019. Climate change: Why varietal diversity is critical to wine- growing’s warmer future. Wine & Viticulture Journal (34). (non-peer-reviewed) (pdf)
Joly, S, Flynn, D.F.B. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2019. On the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic correlations in multi-species studies. Methods in Ecology & Evolution. doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13184 (bioRxiv // pdf)
Davies, T. J., Regetz, J., Wolkovich, E. M. & B.J. McGill. 2019. Phylogenetically weighted regression: A method for modelling non‐stationarity on evolutionary trees. Global Ecology & Biogeography (28): 275-285. (pdf)
2018
Wolkovich, E. M., García de Cortazar-Atauri, I., Morales-Castilla, I., Nicholas, K.A. & T. Lacombe. 2018. From Pinot to Xinomavro in the world’s future winegrowing regions. Nature Climate Change (8): 29-37. (media // pdf)
Flynn, D. F. B. & E.M. Wolkovich. 2018. Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community. New Phytologist (219): 1353-1362. (pdf // theme song: Shots by Imagine Dragons)
Ettinger, A., S. Gee & E. M. Wolkovich. 2018. Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow. American Journal of Botany (105): 1771-1780. (pdf)
Kharouba, H. M., Ehrlen, J., Gelman, A., Bolmgren, K., Allen, J. M., Travers, S. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2018. Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. PNAS (115): 5211-5216. (pdf)
2014
Wolkovich, E. M., Cook, B. I., McLauchlan, K. K. & T. J. Davies. 2014. Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene. Ecology Letters (17): 1365–1379. (pdf // theme song: Lakehouse by Of Monsters and Men)
Wolkovich, E. M., Allesina, S., Cottingham, K. L., Moore, J. C. & C. de Mazancourt. 2014. Linking the green and brown worlds: The prevalence and effect of multi-channel feeding in food webs. Ecology (95): 3376–3386. (pdf)
Francis, T. B., Wolkovich, E. M., Scheuerell, M. D., Katz, S. L., Elizabeth E. E., & S. E. Hampton. In press. 2014. Shifting regimes and changing interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., plankton community from 1962-1992. PLoS ONE 9(10): e110363. (pdf)
Wolkovich, E. M. & A. K. Ettinger. 2014. Back to the future for plant phenology research (Commentary). New Phytologist (203): 1021–1023. (pdf)
Wolkovich, E. M. , B. I. Cook & T. J. Davies. 2014. Progress towards an interdisciplinary science of plant phenology: Building predictions across space, time and species diversity. New Phytologist (201): 1156–1162. (pdf // data)
Wolkovich, E. M. & E. E. Cleland. 2014. Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change. AoB Plants: doi:10.1093/aobpla/plu013. (pdf)
2013
Wolkovich, E. M., Davies, T. J., Schaefer, H., Cleland, E. E., Cook, B. I., Travers, S. E. , Willis, C. G. & C. C. Davis. 2013. Temperature-dependent shifts in phenology contribute to the success of exotic species with climate change. American Journal of Botany 100(7): 1407-1421. (pdf // data)
Pau, S., Wolkovich, E. M., Cook, B. I., Nytch, C., Regetz, J., Zimmerman, J. K. & S. J. Wright. 2013. Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production. Nature Climate Change (3): 838-842. (pdf // HGB’s Jump in the line)
Davies, T.J., E. M. Wolkovich & 16 other co-authors. 2013. Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology. Journal of Ecology (101): 1520–1530. (pdf // data)
2012
Wolkovich, E.M. & 18 co-authors. 2012. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485 (7399): 494-497. (pdf // supp, data from NECTAR & STONE, Article and Forum)
Wolkovich, E. M., Regetz, J. & M. I. O’Connor. 2012. Advances in global change research require open science by individual researchers. Global Change Biology 18(7): 2102-2110. (pdf)
Cook, B.I., Wolkovich, E.M. & C. Parmesan. 2012 Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(3): 9000-9005. (pdf)
Cleland, E. E., J. M. Allen, T. M. Crimmins, J. A. Dunne, S. Pau, S. E. Travers, E. S. Zavaleta & E. M. Wolkovich. 2012 Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change. Ecology 93(8): 1765-1771. (pdf // data)
Pau, S, Gillespie, T.W., & E.M. Wolkovich. 2012. Dissecting NDVI-species richness relationships in Hawaiian dry forests. Journal of Biogeography 39(9): 1678-1686. (pdf // supp)
Davies, T.J., Kraft, N.B.J., Salamin, N. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2012. Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism. Ecology 93(2): 242-247. (pdf)
Wainwright, C.E., Wolkovich, E.M. & E.E. Cleland. 2012. Seasonal priority effects: implications for invasion and restoration in a semi-arid system. Journal of Applied Ecology, 49(1): 234-241. (pdf, recommended by Faculty of 1000)
Craine, J. M., E. M. Wolkovich, & E. G. Towne. 2012. The roles of shifting and filtering in generating community-level flowering phenology. Ecography 35. (pdf)
Cook, B. I., Wolkovich, E. M. & 17 co-authors. 2012. Ecosystems. Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases. (pdf // PEP & NECTAR data)
2011
Craine, J. M., Wolkovich, E. M., Towne, E. G. & S. W. Kembel. 2011. Flowering phenology as a functional trait. New Phytologist 193: 673-682. (pdf)
Wolkovich, E.M. & E.E. Cleland. 2011. The phenology of plant invasions: A community ecology perspective. Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment 9(5): 287-294. (pdf // data from Project Budburst, featured on Project Biodiversify)
Pau*, S., Wolkovich*, E.M., Cook, B.I., Davies, T.J., Kraft, N.J.B., Bolmgren, K., Betancourt, J. & E.E. Cleland. 2011. Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science. *Both authors contributed equally to this work. Global Change Biology 17: 3633-3643. (pdf // data)
Wilson, E.E. & E. M. Wolkovich. 2011. Scavenging: How carnivores and carrion structure communities. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 26(3): 129-135. *Both authors contributed equally to this work. (pdf // data & code)
Firn, J. & 32 co-authors (Wolkovich, E.M. co-author) 2011. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities. Ecology Letters 14(3):247-281. (Publication from Nutrient Network. Assisted with writing, editing and statistical analyses.) (pdf)
Nicholas, K. A., Wolkovich, E. M. & L. A. Webb. 2011. Trends in climate and phenological changes in California and Australia. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture 62(3): 395A-395A. (pdf)
2010
Wolkovich E.M. 2010. Non-native grass litter enhances grazing arthropod assemblages by increasing native shrub growth. Ecology 91(3): 756-766. (pdf // data)
Wolkovich E.M., Lipson, D.A., Virginia, R.A., Bolger, D.T., & K.L. Cottingham. 2010. Grass invasion causes rapid increases in ecosystem carbon and nitrogen storage in a semi-arid shrubland. Global Change Biology 16(4): 1352-1365. (pdf // data)
Wolkovich, E.M. 2010 Defining and re-defining invasion biology (book review). Journal of Vegetation Science 21(4): 804-806. (pdf)
2009
Wolkovich E.M., D.T. Bolger & D.A. Holway. 2009. Complex responses to invasive grass litter by ground arthropods in a Mediterranean shrub ecosystem. Oecologia 161(4): 697-708. (pdf // data)
Wolkovich, E. M., D.T. Bolger & K.L. Cottingham. 2009. Invasive grass litter facilitates native shrubs through abiotic effects. Journal of Vegetation Science 20(6): 1121-1132. (pdf // data)
Earlier
Buchholtz, E.A., Wolkovich E.M. & Cleary, R.J. 2005. Vertebral osteology and complexity in Lagenorhynchus acutus (Delphinidae) with comparison to other Delphinoid genera. Marine Mammal Science 21:411-428. (pdf)
* Reprints are provided solely for single-user, non-commercial use.
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